The grid’s balancing act
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Demand surges as reliable power is forced to retire
WHEN EDITOR SETH THOMPSON sat at his typewriter 75 years ago to write for Kentucky’s electric co-op magazine (which would later become Kentucky Living), he probably could not have imagined how advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence and electric vehicles would someday tax the power grid.
Thankfully, Thompson and his fellow electric co-op pioneers understood the first rule of the electric grid: Like a perfectly balanced scale, the grid must be built to produce power in balance with the highest demand at any moment.
“No one knows how fast this state will grow, nor how much power it will need in any given year,” Thompson wrote. “… We must assume that future generations will be just as hungry for the better things of life as the generation which built the electrical distribution co-ops.”
Indeed, the appetite for energy today is larger than ever and growing. U.S. electricity demand increased 2.5% in 2024 and is expected to grow by 3.2% this year. That was after a 4.8% increase in 2022. Through 2029, the nation’s peak demand is projected to grow by 38 gigawatts. That would be like adding the energy needs of another California to our nation’s already stressed power grid.
What’s driving demand?
Federal policies, subsidies and tax advantages are encouraging more electric use, from efficient electric heat pumps to electric vehicles.
Meanwhile, the rapid growth of artificial intelligence is driving the development of massive data center facilities. By 2022, these facilities accounted for 2.5% of the nation’s consumption of electricity—and by 2030, they are projected to consume as much as 9% of all electric power.
But instead of ensuring a perfectly balanced electric grid to meet the surging demand, new federal regulations are forcing power providers to shut down reliable sources of baseload power. Many large coal plants have been converted to use cleaner-burning natural gas, but the new rules make it too costly to convert some coal plants, so they are being shut down prematurely. More than 110 gigawatts of on-demand generation—enough to power about 35 million homes—is forecast to be retired by 2033.
As a result, over half of North America could face energy shortfalls in the next decade, according to a new report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.
“Our infrastructure is not being built fast enough to keep up with the rising demand,” says John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessment and performance analysis. “Policymakers, industry leaders and stakeholders across North America must work together to ensure the expansion of the bulk power system … and also maintain reliability that our society depends on.”
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Data centers are driving record demand for reliable electricity. Photo: Manuel Geissinger/Pexels
New energy construction
The energy industry carefully forecasts demand because construction of all types of electric generation is costly and lengthy—often longer than a decade from groundbreaking to entering service.
Before any new power project can connect to the electric grid, regulators must first assess whether the transmission system can handle it safely and reliably. Each project must wait in line for its turn to be reviewed.
Federal subsidies have stimulated solar, battery and wind projects, which make up almost all the capacity in the interconnection queues today. But due to its variability and weather dependence, renewable energy is not reliable enough to provide baseload power, NERC says.
That dependability gap will also lead to higher energy costs in the future, explains Chris Perry, president and CEO of Kentucky Electric Cooperatives.
“Because solar energy doesn’t work when the sun is not shining, it has to be backed up by a reliable power source, such as coal, natural gas or nuclear,” Perry says. “Ultimately, electric consumers will have to pay for both.
“Someday, we hope that utility-scale batteries can be robust enough to power us through an extended period of time, and co-ops will make those investments when the time comes, but we need to keep the grid reliable.”
What can be done?
In a letter to President Donald Trump, Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, pledged to work with the new administration to advance policies that support energy production, manufacturing and infrastructure that are crucial to the well-being of co-op communities.
“We urge President Trump and congressional leaders to prioritize reliability right out of the gate before it’s too late,” Matheson says.
As Seth Thompson wrote in this magazine 75 years ago, “We believe, therefore, that the time to prepare for the future is NOW.”
Going off grid: Know what you’re getting into
Most consumers are not engineers, and independent solar consultants who work directly for homeowners are rare. Even the best sales pitches can leave potential buyers with more questions than answers.
As renewable energy technology, including solar generation, continues to evolve, and consumers buy and install products and components, differences in performance, reliability and durability can affect both quality and long-term costs.
According to Keith Dennis, CEO of the Beneficial Electrification League, a nonprofit that promotes beneficial electrification of the economy, consumers who choose to live without connections to an electric utility should know what they are getting into.
“Any sales pitch for ‘free electricity,’ is probably too good to be true,” says Dennis. “A grid connection provides value to the consumer, and if you think you’re going to get that without paying anything, you really want to make sure you are getting accurate information.”
While solar panel output and available energy storage may meet regular needs consistently, changes in usage—such as when visitors are in the home or during extended extreme weather—can cause shortages.
“Unless you are really remote, the costs of cutting your connection to the grid are likely to be more than maintaining a connection,” says Dennis. “Green power is evolving, and like every type of technology, as products are redesigned or improved, new versions often perform better than older components.”
Utility providers constantly improve and upgrade their systems, but most consumers replace major investments only when they no longer meet their needs.
Dennis suggests that consumers committed to living off grid insulate their homes to maximize the benefits of their power generation. He also recommends investments in energy storage, and enough generation capacity to keep batteries fully charged under taxing operating conditions.
BEL has developed a Beneficial Electrification Toolkit, updated frequently to include major policy changes and updates on emerging technologies.
“There’s still a lot of turnover in the ‘green building market,’” says Dennis, adding that consumers should be aware of any safety issues they might face as components age or fail, and need to be replaced. “That’s particularly true as more manufacturers and vendors add or remove products from their inventories.”
Beyond a constant awareness of overall energy use, consumers who choose residential solar or any form of renewable energy can benefit from tracking seasonal and long-term performance of their systems.
“People who try this are risk takers, but they have to be prepared to adapt when unexpected challenges occur,” says Dennis. “Whether your goals are controlling costs or reducing your overall environmental impact, you want to make sure performance achieves expected results.
Building smart and being prepared
Near the Woodford-Franklin county line, Matt and Rebekah Smither farm about 10 acres, raising chickens, goats and a few hogs near their 2,800 square-foot home, completed in 2020.
“We custom-built our home for energy efficiency. It’s well insulated and designed for rooftop solar,” says Rebekah. “We added solar the next year, so our energy use is really low.”
Their 4-kilowatt system currently has 10 panels, and the house has enough southeast-facing roof space to expand rated solar production capacity to 7 kW with additional panels.
“One of our biggest challenges was finding an experienced contractor with a track record for solar installation because the technology is relatively new,” Rebekah says. “We wanted a system we could expand, and we chose mid-market quality.” Matt considers solar supplemental to their co-op service.
Their home doesn’t have backup batteries, so when the grid goes out, it loses power. “We’re looking at adding a backup generator so when we don’t have power, we’ll be able to keep things running,” Matt says. “With battery costs coming down, that may be an option.”
Around the dinner table, “We talk about gardening and the importance of closing doors to keep the house comfortable,” says Rebekah. “It’s not really about being stingy with energy; it’s about living responsibly.”
Plenty of planning
A successful off-the-grid lifestyle requires lots of research, lifetime learning and a willingness to write down instructions to handle unexpected challenges.
Phil and Barbra-Sue Kowalski embraced the idea, so when they bought 40 acres in Grayson County and moved there in 2023, they were prepared to live in an RV. They later purchased another 28 acres adjacent to their property.
“I always wanted a cabin in the mountains and knew we’d need to have a sawmill to turn our trees into lumber,” Phil recalls.
“He’s my ‘MacGyver,’” says Barbra-Sue, crediting Phil’s improvisational skills learned in high school vocational classes and as a National Guard helicopter mechanic for making their “modern homesteading” possible.
Easement costs, clearing right-of-way and long-term service commitments were issues they considered when weighing the costs of building a solar energy system against a conventional connection.
“We invested in the system up front, but we don’t have monthly utility bills,” says Barbra-Sue. Sixteen solar panels power their RV and a small shed, and they charge marine batteries to provide power on cloudy days and overnight.
During shorter winter days, they conserve power for cooking and other essential activities. They also consider energy use before making any changes to the property.
“She practically has to do a research paper on any changes I make to the farm,” says Phil. With enough capacity and redundancy, they kept the farm running on half-power this summer, while waiting for delivery of replacement components.
“You need to have backup plans, in case something fails,” Barbra-Sue explains. “This is never going to be easy—it’s a lot of work.”
The couple chronicles their efforts on Barbra-Sue’s blog, Kowalski Mountain, and in videos they publish on YouTube.
“We try to offer a little guidance for anyone who wants to try living off the grid,” she says.
According to the Solar Energy Industry Association, which represents solar equipment manufacturers, vendors and installers, residential solar in Kentucky, relatively rare in 2014, now serves at least 20,000 homes. Quality and consumer education can make a huge difference, according to the association.
From the archive
Read the original 1950 Kentucky Electric Co-op News column by Editor Seth Thompson.
A Far-Reaching Decision
March 14 will be a day of great importance for the farmers and other rural residents of Kentucky. On March 14, the Public Service Commission will hold a public hearing on whether the electric co-ops should be permitted to accept a loan of $12,265,000 from the Rural Electrification Administration. The purpose of the loan is to enable the East Kentucky Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation to build a steam generation plant to make electric power, and a transmission system to “haul” this power to its member co-ops.
After the hearing, the Commission will take the evidence under consideration and decide whether the cooperative may accept the loan and be granted a certificate of necessity and convenience to build its plant and transmission lines. The outstanding feature of the generation-transmission co-op is that it guarantees that rural people will have their own constant source of cheap power.
No one knows how fast this state will grow, nor how much power it will need in any given year. But this is a case where optimism is certainly more to be desired than pessimism. We must assume that future generations will be just as hungry for the better things of life as the generation which built the electrical distribution co-ops. In the last 10 years, the use of electrical power in Kentucky has soared far beyond the dreams of those who built the distribution co-ops. People are learning more uses of electricity every day; more homes are being connected every day; more appliances are being sold every day.
We believe, therefore, that the time to prepare for the future is NOW. We know of no area which has had too much power, but we can cite case after case of too little power… right here in Kentucky. We have always said that an electric co-op is a pure example of free enterprise—the economic system which we Americans have found to be a good one. We do not believe in monopolies in the power field any more than in any other field.
Operating under the free-enterprise system, the Kentucky electrical distribution co-ops have been unquestionably successful. They have done a great job for their members. By the same point of reasoning, we believe that the generation-transmission co-op will be just as successful. Its directors are the directors and managers of these successful distribution co-ops. Theirs are good hands in which to place the source of power for growing Kentucky’s future.